Uncertainty measures and actuarial application

Predmet istraživanja ovog rada su mere neodređenosti, posebno mera kredibliteta, kao i mogućnost njihove primene u aktuarstvu. U cilju generalizacije teorije kredibiliteta, uvedena je nova mera, nazvana mera c- kredibiliteta. Mera c-kredibiliteta na X je skupovna funkcija takva da su zadovoljene osobine normalnosti, monotonosti, samodualnosti i maksimalnosti. Za nju su dokazane neke osobine kao što su npr. subaditivnost i poluneprekidnost. Nadalje, definisan je integral zasnovan na meri c- kredibiliteta, a navedena su i dokazana određena svojstva. Nova mera je uvedena i u fazi okruženju kao agregirana vrednost mera mogućnosti i neophodnosti.This thesis studies uncertainty measures, especially credibility measure, as well as the possibility of their application in actuaries. In order to generalize credibility theory, a new fuzzy measure is proposed, called c − credibility measure. C − credibility measure on X is a set function that satisfies normality, monotonicity, self-duality and maximality. Certain properties of the c−credibility measure are proved, such as, for example, subadditivity and semicontinuity. Furthermore, an integral based on this measure is defined, in analogy to the existing integrals, and its properties are proved. Then, the credibility measure in a fuzzy environment is introduced as the aggregate value of the possibility and necessity measures

Uncertainty measures and actuarial application

Predmet istraživanja ovog rada su mere neodređenosti, posebno mera kredibliteta, kao i mogućnost njihove primene u aktuarstvu. U cilju generalizacije teorije kredibiliteta, uvedena je nova mera, nazvana mera c- kredibiliteta. Mera c-kredibiliteta na X je skupovna funkcija takva da su zadovoljene osobine normalnosti, monotonosti, samodualnosti i maksimalnosti. Za nju su dokazane neke osobine kao što su npr. subaditivnost i poluneprekidnost. Nadalje, definisan je integral zasnovan na meri c- kredibiliteta, a navedena su i dokazana određena svojstva. Nova mera je uvedena i u fazi okruženju kao agregirana vrednost mera mogućnosti i neophodnosti.This thesis studies uncertainty measures, especially credibility measure, as well as the possibility of their application in actuaries. In order to generalize credibility theory, a new fuzzy measure is proposed, called c − credibility measure. C − credibility measure on X is a set function that satisfies normality, monotonicity, self-duality and maximality. Certain properties of the c−credibility measure are proved, such as, for example, subadditivity and semicontinuity. Furthermore, an integral based on this measure is defined, in analogy to the existing integrals, and its properties are proved. Then, the credibility measure in a fuzzy environment is introduced as the aggregate value of the possibility and necessity measures

Application of the C-Credibility Measure

The complex logistics process involves numerous dynamic uncertainties and internal risks. Those risks alone or in interaction with other groups of risks can affect the entire system. This paper proposes the application of the new measure, c-credibility measure to the complex system such as logistic process. For this purpose, fuzzy logic system for risk assessments in logistic process is proposed. C-credibility selection through ranking is implemented in the simulation process with crh membership function definition on the fuzzy variable to calculate credibility value. Numerical analysis of the proposed approach with obtained results and the related discussion is presented

Koncept otvorenih inovacija u funkciji unapređenja inovacionih kapaciteta MSP u Srbiji

Predmet rada je analiza značaja koncepta otvorenih inovacija u procesu unapređenja inovacionog potencijala malih i srednjih preduzeća (MSP) u Srbiji. Cilj rada je se da ukaže na mogućnosti koje MSP u Srbiji stoje na raspolaganju kao rešenja za prevazilaženje određenih barijera u procesu kreiranja i implementacije inovacija. U radu se postavlja pitanje koliko je koncept otvorenih inovacija zastupljen u Srbiji i da li je prepoznat od strane MSP kao opcija za unapređenje inovacionih performansi. Autori rada su mišljenja da se sposobnosti MSP u segmentu kreiranja i uvođenja inovacija mogu značajno unaprediti usvajanjem modela otvorenih inovacija, odnosno intenzivnom saradnjom ovih preduzeća sa drugim organizacijama, posebno istraživačko-razvojnim institucijama. Ukazujući na mogućnosti koje poseduje koncept otvorenih inovacija, nalazi u ovom radu mogu doprineti unapređenju postojeće prakse inoviranja preduzeća u Srbiji

Business Process Innovation of Serbian Entrepreneurial Firms

Innovations are vital for improving living standards and can affect not only individuals but also institutions, economic sectors, and the whole country in many ways. This paper investigates the innovation performances of Serbian entrepreneurial firms. It focuses on business process innovations related to product and business process development. The sample consists of Serbian start-ups, which were founded in 2015, from five industries. The data about these entrepreneurial firms were collected via a questionnaire. The respondents assessed various statements about product and business process development innovations on a five-point Likert scale (1-strongly disagree; 5-strongly agree). The statements were derived from several indicators within the Balanced Scorecard’s process perspective. They were modified to fit the new definition of business process innovation provided by the OECD/Eurostat (2018) and according to the context of Serbian entrepreneurial firms. The statistical analysis involved descriptive statistics, frequencies, reliability analysis, and One-way ANOVA. The results indicate that most of the entrepreneurial firms introduced innovations that enabled them to operate more efficiently, improve their processes, establish certain routines, respond to customer complaints faster than their competitors, and develop a product or a service more quickly than their competitors. No statistically significant differences were found regarding introducing business process innovations among entrepreneurial firms from different industries. This paper can help policymakers assess the contribution of innovation to economic goals and monitor and evaluate the effectiveness of their innovation policies

Business process innovations in family firms: evidence from Serbia

Purpose – This paper aims to explore the innovation performance of Serbian family firms, the differences in the innovation performance between family and non-family firms as well as different family firms, and the relationship between business process innovation and customer satisfaction among family firms. Design/methodology/approach – The sample consists of 207 valid responses from young Serbian companies from various industries founded in 2015 that published their financial statements in 2017. The statistical analysis involved descriptive statistics, reliability analysis, independent samples t-test, one-way ANOVA, and correlation analysis. Findings – The study results indicate that family businesses in Serbia are innovation-oriented and that they introduced a number of innovations in business processes related to the production and distribution of goods or services and the development of products and business processes. The results also suggest that family and nonfamily firms are equally committed to introducing innovations in business processes. In addition, the study did not confirm significant differences in the performance of business process innovations among family firms in the manufacturing, trade, and service sectors. Finally, the results demonstrate that introducing business process innovations is positively associated with customer satisfaction and customer retention rate in Serbian family firms. Originality/value – This paper presents the first comprehensive analysis of the innovation performance of Serbian family firms and can help policymakers assess the contribution of innovation to economic goals

Personal subjectivity impact reduction in choice of sour cherry varieties for orchard establishment using fuzzy system

This paper analyzes the problem of multi-criteria decision making methods (MCDM) when selecting the optimal type of sour cherry for planting. Choice of varieties in agriculture is a very complex problem and is usually characterized by the interaction of a large number of factors, including often limited resources and uncertain information (price, time). In this context, mathematical models can represent valuable support for farmers when deciding on the choice of crops and plants for planting. An integrated MCDM method is presented, along with expert knowledge and Fuzzy Interference System (FIS) for sour cherry varieties choosing. The proposed approach assists decision makers in complex calculations and diminishes the impact of personal subjectivity and perception in order to define the overall evaluation. Data is incorporated in proposed fuzzy system and validated by a numerical example

Determining the Discount Rate: The Case of Oil Industry in Serbia

The paper presents theoretical and methodological aspects of determining the discount rate on the example of NIS, as the largest energy company in Serbia and one of the largest in Southeast Europe. The total cost of capital which represents the weighted average of equity and long-term debt costs is used as discount rate. The cost of equity capital is calculated using the CAPM which, despite all its limitations, is still theoretically the most correct and frequently used model in practice. The average cost of long-term debt capital to the company NIS is equal to 14.773%, the cost of equity capital is 12.453% and the total cost of capital, WACC, is 12.505%. The main component of the cost of equity capital is the risk premium of investing in Serbia. The results show that macroeconomic stability strengthening and adequate management of borrowed funds can contribute to reduction of the total cost of capital in the Serbian oil industry

Integrated Fuzzy System and Multi-Expression Programming Techniques for Supplier Selection

Supplier selection problem is a multi-objective problem in which different criteria should be taken into consideration. This article presents a new approach to supplier pre-qualification, supplier selection and evaluation. In the first stage of the model, multi-expression programming (MEP) techniques are used for a supplier pre-qualification. Techniques implemented in MEP allow construction of experiential models using the knowledge contained in the experimental information. Evaluation of the qualified suppliers is done in the second stage using fuzzy logic and Fuzzy Inference System (FIS). In this way, it is possible to retain expert knowledge of the subject phenomenon in a model with the possibility of selecting different operators which lead to the possibility of the faster selection of parameters and making more reliable decisions. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the proposed approach

Determining the Individual Theta Frequency for Associative Memory Targeted Personalized Transcranial Brain Stimulation

Non-invasive brain stimulation (NIBS) methods have gained increased interest in research and therapy of associative memory (AM) and its impairments. However, the one-size-fits-all approach yields inconsistent findings, thus putting forward the need for electroencephalography (EEG)-guided personalized frequency-modulated NIBS protocols to increase the focality and the effectiveness of the interventions. Still, extraction of individual frequency, especially in the theta band, turned out to be a challenging task. Here we present an approach to extracting the individual theta-band frequency (ITF) from EEG signals recorded during the AM task. The method showed a 93% success rate, good reliability, and the full range of variability of the extracted ITFs. This paper provides a rationale behind the adopted approach and critically evaluates it in comparison to the alternative methods that have been reported in the literature. Finally, we discuss how it could be used as an input parameter for personalized frequency-modulated NIBS approaches—transcranial alternating current stimulation (tACS) and transcranial oscillatory current stimulation (otDCS) directed at AM neuromodulation